RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness October 2023 — Over the past decade, global fresh blueberry exports have expanded steadily, driven by a diversifying base of growing regions.
Despite the inflationary environment, consumption of blueberries in key markets has been quite robust. The industry has raised the bar in terms of fruit quality, and this will be a critical aspect in fostering further consumption growth. Adoption of new technology and varieties will be key to providing blueberries that will satisfy consumers globally.
The 2023/24 season will be the first marketing year in recent history to see a negative year-on-year variance in global exports, as shipments from Peru are expected to decline significantly due to a warm winter that delayed harvest and will negatively impact yields and shipments, according to industry sources.
Potential lingering effects of El Niño-related weather anomalies are likely to limit the rebound of Peruvian exports in 2024/25, but in the longer run, global blueberry exports will resume a growth trajectory as yields improve in Peru and exports from other growing regions continue to expand.
By 2026/27, we expect global fresh blueberry exports to exceed 1 million metric tons.
